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Prediction for CME (2025-05-19T00:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-05-19T00:00Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/38970/-1
CME Note: Large, bright CME first seen in the NW by SOHO LASCO C2 beginning at 2025-05-19T00:00Z as well as by SOHO LASCO C3, STEREO A COR2, and GOES CCOR-1 in later frames. The source of this event is a large filament eruption centered at approximately N50E10 with a gradual liftoff beginning at approximately 2025-05-18T19:00Z. This filament can be seen exhibiting some Northwestern deflection in SDO AIA and GOES SUVI 304, along with dimming visible in SDO AIA 193 and 211, field line opening visible in SDO AIA 171 and post eruptive arcades visible in SDO AIA 131 and 193.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-05-23T00:17Z (-6.16h, +10.43h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 33.0%
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note: 
Time of Launch: 2025/05/19 01:00Z
Plane of Sky 1: 13:30Z; 31.5Rsun; NNW Direction
Plane of Sky 2: 19:50Z; 31.5Rsun; SSE Direction
POS Difference: 6:20
POS Midpoint: 16:40Z
TOL/Midpoint Difference: 15:40

Numeric View/Impact Type: 3
POS Difference Resulted Value: ~6.08
Travel Time: ~6.08 * 15:40 = 95:17

Predicted L1 Arrival: 2025-05-23T00:17Z

Error Parameters:
 - POS Difference: 1 Hour
 - Travel Time Square Root: 50%

Notes:
Coronagraph Imagery Quality: 2/5
Method Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/nfk166mjdh


Forecast Creation Time: 2025/05/19 22:17Z
Lead Time: 73.98 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2025-05-19T22:18Z
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